Author: Basketball Analytics

Step Back 3PT Shot Analysis

Anyone who watches the Rockets will see that James Harden shoots a lot of 3’s and that a lot of those 3’s are step back 3’s. I wanted to know exactly how many of his 3’s are step back 3’s and if there’s an advantage to taking that step back for Harden and if this also applies to other 3PT shooters.

Using NBA Play by Play data for all games played in the 2018-19 season, I gathered all the step back 3PT shots and non step back 3PT shots made and missed for all players. The players below took the most step back 3PT shots in the past season ordered by makes.

Player3PT SB Made3PT SB Total3PT SB %3PT NSB Made3PT NSB Total3PT NSB %%Diff
James Harden21254239.11%16648634.16%4.95%
Luka Doncic6116736.53%10734730.84%5.69%
Stephen Curry416860.29%31374242.18%18.11%
Paul George296346.03%26369437.90%8.13%
Mike Conley265944.07%12936735.15%8.92%
LeBron James245048.00%8727731.41%16.59%
Jamal Murray235839.66%12935636.24%3.42%
Joe Ingles224845.83%16743538.39%7.44%
Bradley Beal215935.59%18853735.01%0.58%
Kemba Walker214744.68%23968434.94%9.74%
Chris Paul194938.78%10830635.29%3.49%
Dwyane Wade194740.43%6721431.31%9.12%
Jrue Holiday175133.33%10131232.37%0.96%
Buddy Hield173943.59%26161242.65%0.94%
Damian Lillard164436.36%22159936.89%-0.53%
Blake Griffin164238.10%17348036.04%2.06%
Donovan Mitchell163644.44%17248335.61%8.83%
Step back 3PT shots made vs attempted with percentage made
Non-step back 3PT shots made vs attempted with percentage made

James Harden took an astounding number of step back 3PT this years with 542 attempts. He took and made more step back 3PT shots than non-step back 3PT shots. This is an NBA record that no one is even close to. The next closest player this year was Luka Doncic with 167 attempts, and the list of players drop considerably with Stephen at 68 attempts.

So does taking a step back before shooting the 3PT shot help or hurt these players. The answer is pretty clear that stepping back is better! The average improvement in percentage of these shots made from non-SB to SB is 6.38%. For example, James Harden shot 34% on non-SB 3PT shots but on SB 3PT shots he was 39% which is a 5% improvement. 5% on 550 3B 3PT attempts that Harden had is 28 more made 3PT shots meaning he added around 85 points this past season just by taking a step back when he took a 3PT shot. That’s over 1 more point per game that Harden scored because of the step back. Even for a sub-par 3PT shooter like Doncic who shot 31% on non-SB 3PT improved when shooting SB 3PT to 37%. Same goes for Lebron James who shot 31% on non-SB 3PT and 48% on SB 3PT, a 17% improvement! The most notable difference in percentage may be the improvement of a lethal 3PT shooter Stephen Curry. He already shot 42% on non-SB 3PT, but on SB 3PT he shot 60%! That’s a 18% improvement. If Curry decided to take step back on half of his 800 3PT attempts this past season, theoretically he could have scored 240 more points using his percentages. The only player of this list who shot a lower percentage on SB 3PT shots was Damian Lillard who only had a .5% decrease.

Looking at this data, I would think it would benefit many of the top 3PT shooters to emulate Harden from this year and take more SB 3PT. Harden and the Rockets may have already realized this advantage and took it to a new level this year. We may soon see other players do the same and raise the efficiency of the league on offense.

James Harden Shot Selection Analysis 2018-19 Regular Season

Since the season is officially over for the Rockets, I wanted to do a review of James Harden’s shot selections over the 2018-19 season. The spreadsheet and chart below shows all of Harden’s shots grouped by the type of shot.

James Harden Shot Selection Chart
Shot TypeFGMFGA%FGAFG%eFG%%Diff
2PT Dunk Shot20221.15%90.91%90.91%36.85%
2PT Fadeaway13211.10%61.90%61.90%7.85%
2PT Floater11622511.79%51.56%51.56%-2.50%
2PT Hook Shot470.37%57.14%57.14%3.08%
2PT Jump Shot12261.36%46.15%46.15%-7.91%
2PT Layup28353327.92%53.10%53.10%-0.96%
2PT Step Back Jump Shot17472.46%36.17%36.17%-17.89%
3PT Jump Shot11734317.97%34.11%51.17%-2.89%
3PT Pullup Jump Shot491437.49%34.27%51.40%-2.66%
3PT Step Back Jump Shot21254228.39%39.11%58.67%4.61%
Total8431909 44.16%54.06% 
  • %FGA is the percentage of each shot type attempted over the total shot attempts
  • eFG% is the effective field goal percentage which is accounts for the point value of a 2PT shot vs 3PT shot (1x for 2PT FG% and 1.5x for 3PT FG%)
  • %Diff is the difference between the eFG% of the shot type and Harden’s total eFG%

In the 2018-19 season, Harden was very efficient with his shot selection where over 96% of his shots had an eFG% of higher than 50%. I think the biggest highlight of his efficiency was the incredible number of step back 3PT shots he took and made this season. He made and took more step back 3’s than any other shot type and made them at 39% which is significantly better than his non-stepback 3’s percentage of 34%.

The only two inefficient shot categories for Harden was the 2PT Jump Shot and 2PT Step Back Jump Shot (midrange shots), but this only accounts for less than 4% of his shots. It’s somewhat surprising that his step back 2 was his worst shot type and the step back 3 was his best shot type, but maybe this is just additional proof of Moreyball working.

Harden always seems to improve his game year to year when it seems no longer possible to improve. This year he added the step back 3PT shot (39% on 542 attempts) and the floater (52% on 225 attempts). Next year, one shot type that Harden could potentially add to improve his game is the midrange fadeaway shot. This season he was 62% on those fadeaway shots but only took 21 of them. Another way he could improve is by improving his step back 2’s and taking even more step back 3’s. Overall Harden is already incredibly efficient with his shot selection, so it will be exciting to see what else he adds to his game next year.

Data was gathered from NBA.com/stats PlayByPlay data and analyzed using Python and SQL