James Harden Shot Selection Analysis 2018-19 Regular Season

Since the season is officially over for the Rockets, I wanted to do a review of James Harden’s shot selections over the 2018-19 season. The spreadsheet and chart below shows all of Harden’s shots grouped by the type of shot.

Shot Type	FGM	FGA	%FGA	FG%	eFG%	%Diff
2PT Dunk Shot	20	22	1.15%	90.91%	90.91%	36.85%
2PT Fadeaway	13	21	1.10%	61.90%	61.90%	7.85%
2PT Floater	116	225	11.79%	51.56%	51.56%	-2.50%
2PT Hook Shot	4	7	0.37%	57.14%	57.14%	3.08%
2PT Jump Shot	12	26	1.36%	46.15%	46.15%	-7.91%
2PT Layup	283	533	27.92%	53.10%	53.10%	-0.96%
2PT Step Back Jump Shot	17	47	2.46%	36.17%	36.17%	-17.89%
3PT Jump Shot	117	343	17.97%	34.11%	51.17%	-2.89%
3PT Pullup Jump Shot	49	143	7.49%	34.27%	51.40%	-2.66%
3PT Step Back Jump Shot	212	542	28.39%	39.11%	58.67%	4.61%
Total	843	1909		44.16%	54.06%

• %FGA is the percentage of each shot type attempted over the total shot attempts
• eFG% is the effective field goal percentage which is accounts for the point value of a 2PT shot vs 3PT shot (1x for 2PT FG% and 1.5x for 3PT FG%)
• %Diff is the difference between the eFG% of the shot type and Harden’s total eFG%

In the 2018-19 season, Harden was very efficient with his shot selection where over 96% of his shots had an eFG% of higher than 50%. I think the biggest highlight of his efficiency was the incredible number of step back 3PT shots he took and made this season. He made and took more step back 3’s than any other shot type and made them at 39% which is significantly better than his non-stepback 3’s percentage of 34%.

The only two inefficient shot categories for Harden was the 2PT Jump Shot and 2PT Step Back Jump Shot (midrange shots), but this only accounts for less than 4% of his shots. It’s somewhat surprising that his step back 2 was his worst shot type and the step back 3 was his best shot type, but maybe this is just additional proof of Moreyball working.

Harden always seems to improve his game year to year when it seems no longer possible to improve. This year he added the step back 3PT shot (39% on 542 attempts) and the floater (52% on 225 attempts). Next year, one shot type that Harden could potentially add to improve his game is the midrange fadeaway shot. This season he was 62% on those fadeaway shots but only took 21 of them. Another way he could improve is by improving his step back 2’s and taking even more step back 3’s. Overall Harden is already incredibly efficient with his shot selection, so it will be exciting to see what else he adds to his game next year.

Data was gathered from NBA.com/stats PlayByPlay data and analyzed using Python and SQL